Written by Li Jingtao, Yin Xinchi, Huang Yaoting, Chen Yanlong

Tesla has recently unveiled successive updates on its humanoid robot, with continuous iterative improvements to the robot’s manipulation precision and general generalization capacity. Tesla is expected to take the lead across the humanoid robot sector and realize early commercial deployment. Multiple Chinese cities including Hangzhou and Chongqing have rolled out supportive industrial policies for humanoid robots. Backed by national and local policy incentives, China’s full humanoid robot industrial chain is poised to enter a phase of rapid expansion. Next year may mark the debut year of humanoid robot mass production, from which domestic upstream and downstream suppliers are set to benefit. Investors are advised to track core listed players along Tesla’s humanoid robot supply chain.

Key Developments

Tesla has released fresh footage showcasing its humanoid robot breakthroughs, while local governments have launched supportive policies for the sector. Our analysis is outlined below:

Tesla Releases Video of Robot Catching Tennis Balls, Highlighting Upgraded Dexterous Hands

On November 28, 2024, Tesla shared a video demonstrating its latest robot milestone. Equipped with a new-generation dexterous hand on its left limb, the robot successfully catches tennis balls mid-air. Footage reveals the updated dexterous hand boasts twice as many degrees of freedom with expanded joint movement ranges. Actuators are relocated to the forearm, driving finger motion via tendon cables, which cuts hand weight and boosts agility. While the demo robot was teleoperated in the clip, Elon Musk stated that the robot will accomplish the identical task fully autonomously in the coming quarter. We identify dexterous hands as one of the flagship upgrades for Tesla’s Gen3 humanoid robot. As hardware and software integration for dexterous hands nears completion, full robot assembly and official launch are expected in the near term.

Robot Maintains Stable Locomotion on Rough Outdoor Terrain to Demonstrate Robust Balancing Capability

On December 10, 2024, Tesla published another video featuring its humanoid robot traversing uneven off-road ground while retaining perfect balance. Musk emphasized the test was conducted “blind”: the robot received no visual input and sustained physical equilibrium solely through foot force sensing and neural network processing. Tesla’s humanoid robot is equipped with comprehensive force-sensing control. Powered by neural networks, it delivers outstanding terrain adaptability and stability, capable of navigating not only smooth factory floors but also uneven outdoor surfaces. Future fusion of visual data and force feedback will further enhance lower-limb stability and broaden viable application scenarios.

Multiple Regions Unveil Supportive Policies to Build Humanoid Robot Industrial Clusters

At the end of November 2024, Hangzhou issued the Hangzhou Humanoid Robot Industry Development Plan (2024–2029), outlining key tasks across 15 dimensions to drive high-quality growth of the robotics sector. In early December, seven municipal authorities including Chongqing Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology jointly released the Several Policy Measures of Chongqing Municipality to Support the Innovative Development of the Embodied Intelligent Robot Industry, offering incentives for enterprises in embodied intelligence robotics to qualify as high-tech firms.

Following the MIIT’s issuance of the Guiding Opinions on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots last year, Beijing, Shanghai and other regions have successively released matching industrial policies to nurture local robotics enterprises, establish innovation platforms and cultivate integrated industrial clusters. Supported by top-down national and regional policies, the humanoid robot industrial chain will accelerate its development momentum.

Risk Factors

• Slower-than-expected technological advancement of humanoid robots

• Underwhelming growth potential of robot commercial application scenarios

• Insufficient policy implementation intensity and delayed rollout schedules

• Intensifying industrial competition

• Risks of tightened regulatory oversight

  
  

Investment Strategy

Tesla has continuously released latest robot test videos on X, with steady upgrades to manipulation accuracy and cross-scenario generalization. As autonomous operational performance matures, humanoid robots can preliminarily execute simple in-factory tasks. Next year is likely to become the landmark year for mass production and gradual factory deployment of humanoid robots. We recommend focusing on core enterprises integrated into Tesla’s humanoid robot supply chain.

Source: CITIC Securities Research